It would be the fifth rate hike this year as the Bank tries to get a handle on sky-high inflation. In July, the Bank stunned observers by raising the overnight by a full percentage point, to 2.5 per cent. The overnight rate began the year at 0.25 per cent, where it had been since the BoC dropped it three times in a month in March 2020, as the global COVID-19 pandemic was declared.

A slightly smaller one than the July hike is in the cards this time around, predicted National Bank Financial’s Taylor Schleich.

“We’re certainly more cognizant of the risk of a second straight 100-basis-point, interest-rate hike, and we think it’s a greater risk than is broadly appreciated. Nonetheless, we still expect the Bank to deliver a relatively smaller (but still massive) 75-basis-point rate increase,” Schleich wrote in a research note.

While anything from 50 basis points (half a per cent) to 100 (a full percentage pont) is possible, 75 points would be most consistent with the Bank’s own public statements, Schleich said.

Another key predictor of what the Bank might do — or, at least, what investors are expecting — is the yield on the Canadian government’s five-year bond. As of Friday afternoon, that was at 3.26 per cent, pointed out James Laird, co-founder of Ratehub.ca. A 75-basis-point hike would bring the overnight rate to 3.25 per cent.

“Seventy-five is most likely. Fifty basis points is possible, and the third most likely is 100 points. But there’s almost certainly going to be an increase,” said Laird.